Module 7: Why We Fail to Accurately Assess Strategic Threats, and How to Avoid this Source of Failure
• The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Predictive Science
• Forecasting When Power Law Distributions Apply
• Conditions for Intuitive Expertise
• Models, knowledge creation and their limits
• Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration
Additional Readings:
• The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Predictive Science
• Forecasting When Power Law Distributions Apply
• Conditions for Intuitive Expertise
• Models, knowledge creation and their limits
• Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration
Additional Readings:
- Multipath Analysis: A Method for Reducing the Dimensionality of Complex Forecasting Challenges
- Fundamental Sources of Forecast Error and Uncertainty
- Three Techniques for Weighing Evidence to Reach an Inductive Conclusion